CERINA Plan – Investing for climate protection

Global CO₂ Emissions (Mil.t)

“CERINA Plan” stands for “CO₂ Emissions and Renewable Investment Action Plan”. In contrast to the Kyoto model, which is based on a limiting concept with fixed limits, the IWR proposes a technical investment approach under which the CO₂ emissions of a country are linked to investments in renewable energy technology.

Background
Global CO₂ emissions totalled 33.2 billion tons in 2010, 46 percent higher than in 1990 – the Kyoto Protocol reference year. The fundamental Kyoto Protocol approach is to limit the CO₂ emission per country. The high increase of CO₂ emissions since 1990 clearly shows, however, that the Kyoto mechanism does not work. With the CERINA Plan, the IWR, a renewable energy institute, has developed an alternative investment model. Based on this proposal for global stabilisation of emissions, the country-specific CO₂ emission is directly linked to investments in renewable energy.

The CERINA Plan requires RE investments
The principle of the CERINA Plan is: The higher a country’s CO₂ emissions, the higher the requirement for counterbalancing investment in renewable energy technology. Every country emits CO₂, therefore every country must in principle accept responsibility and make its contribution. Because the annual global CO₂ growth rate (in million tons) is known, the investments in renewable energy generation plant (power, heat, fuels) required at this point in time to at least compensate, and therefore slow down the increasing CO₂ emissions can be calculated. Global investment in renewable energy plant totalled EUR 140 billion in 2010. To stabilise CO2 emissions, IWR calculations show that investment should be increased to at least EUR 500 billion per annum.

Concept: Countries compensate for CO₂ emission
The pivotal concept of the CERINA Plan is the source-based allocation of required investments in renewable energy technologies to specific countries, calculated by the volume of CO₂ emissions in each country. The higher a country’s CO₂ emissions, the higher the required counterbalancing investment. With annual global CO₂ emissions totalling 33.2 billion tons and counterbalancing investments of EUR 530 billion required in renewable energy, the theoretical cost of CO2 is EUR 16 per ton. Based on its CO₂ emission, the country-specific investment in renewable energy technology can be determined for each country. The IWR has calculated the required RE investments for 65 countries in total, based on each country’s CO₂ emission.

Examples: Investments to be initiated according to the CERINA Plan
Under the CERINA Plan China, with 8.3 billion tons of CO₂ emissions, should create suitable political framework conditions to initiate investments in the amount of EUR 133 billion for the construction of wind power, solar or hydro as well as biomass plant. For India, with 1.7 billion tons CO₂ emission, the investment amounts to EUR 27.3 billion and Germany, with 828 million tons, requires EUR 13.3 billion. The CERINA Plan also includes smaller countries with minor emissions. Hungary, with emissions totalling 54 million tons, should organise annual investments of EUR 900 million and in New Zealand, at 34 million tons, EUR 500 million is required annually.

Competition for investments drives climate protection
The Kyoto Protocol limitation approach is rejected by many countries, especially by industry. The CERINA Plan is based on an investment concept that can function alone or in conjunction with other climate protection instruments. As a combination model the CERINA-Plan combines active investment in renewable energy plants and CO2 reduction measures. Open competition for investments increases the acceptance of the climate protection principle in the political and industrial spheres. This creates a global RE investment ranking which may eventually be as significant as export statistics. The significant advantage of the CERINA concept is the direct coupling mechanism, by dint of which each country has two parameters by which to fulfil its climate protection obligations: either by curtailing the emissions or by increasing investments in renewable energy. These alternatives offer countries more leeway with their climate protection measures. Countries with low emission figures contribute less than countries with higher emissions. Each country can select a solution to suit its circumstances. The rising share of renewable energy, or CO₂ reduction, or efficiency increase, will ultimately automatically stabilise or reduce global emissions.