CERINA-Plan

CERINA-Plan stands for “CO2 Emissions and Renewable Investment Action Plan.” Unlike the Kyoto instrument, which represents a limitation model with fixed caps, the IWR proposes a technological investment model, which links CO2 emissions of the countries to investments in renewable energy technologies.

Background
According to an analysis from the IWR, a German renewable energy industry institute, global carbon dioxide emissions in 2008 rose to 31.5 billion metric tons, 40 percent above those in 1990. Kyoto-Protocol is a limitation model, where each countries CO2 emissions level is restricted. The rising CO2-emissions curve shows that Kyoto is not working out. The IWR-Institute for renewable energy has developed an alternative investment model, the CERINA-Plan (CO2-Emissions and Renewable Investment Action Plan). This recommendation to stabilize the emissions is to link measured emissions to the renewable energy investments of different countries.

CERINA-Plan: the principle of the model
The principle is: the higher the CO2-emissions, the higher the following renewable investments in each country should be. Every country is emitting CO2, so every country has to contribute and take responsibility. Knowing the global emissions growth (in billion metric tons), it is possible to calculate backwards the necessary investments in renewable plants (electricity, heat, fuels), which are necessary to compensate and slow down the global emissions increase. The level of direct investment in renewable energy plants worldwide was € 120 billion in 2008 and according to IWR calculation it needs to at least quadruple to approximately € 500 billion each year.

Calculation and contribution of the countries to the global investment plan
The crucial step of the CERINA-Plan is the allocation to the various countries, which is determined through the amount of CO2 emissions in each country. With a total of 31.5 billion tons of global CO2 emissions and the necessity of 500 billion euro per year for renewable energy, there is a theoretical CO2 price of € 16 per metric ton. For each country the specific investments, which each country has to fulfill according to its CO2 emissions, can be determined. IWR has calculated the needed renewable investments for 65 countries according to their CO2 emissions level.

Examples: needed investments within the CERINA-Plan
According to the CERINA-Plan China, with actual the highest CO2 emissions worldwide of about 6.8 billion metric tons (2008), has to invest € 109 billion in renewable energy plants, such as wind, solar, biomass or water, via political framework. India – with 1.4 billion metric tons of CO2 emitted – has to invest € 22.5 billion, in Germany with 860 million metric tons € 13.7 billion are needed. But also smaller countries with lower emissions are considered in the CERINA-Plan. Hungary has emitted 60 million metric tons in 2008 and would have to invest 1 billion Euro each year, New Zeeland 600 million.

Outlook
It looks like there won’t be a climate treaty after Copenhagen and the acting as if the issue of CO2 is a bazaar is going on. CERINA is an opportunity to establish a transparent and clear system to lower the emissions. The advantage of CERINA is that each country has now two options: to curb the emissions or to enhance their investments in renewable energy technologies. Countries with a lower emission level don’t need to make the amount of investments that is required of countries with higher emissions. Every country has the opportunity to choose the most feasible solution. In the long run, the increasing share of renewable energy or the decrease of CO2 emissions via prevention respectively enhanced efficiency standards lead to a global reduction of CO2 emissions.